Most of us are unconsciously biased in our decision making, based on past learning style and experiences. The game methodology helps people move out of their subjective conditioning and to analyse simple and complex choices in a more logical way.

According to Dr David Newman “Whether the choices facing us are simple or complex, a greater awareness of uncertainty and of our own biases can improve the quality of our decision-making. We believe there’s real potential for people to acquire that awareness through computer games”.

Most academic models or scientific based decision making tools can appear to be rather complex to many users. To help them understand the basis for decision making, and recognize how much subjective biases enter into decision making, the game may be a welcome catalyst to a de-programming of damaging Socratic educational backgrounds.

At this stage, the game is purely being used as a research tool to enable researchers to find out more about the thought processes and psychological mechanisms involved in decision making – but the potential for more interactive assistance for executive training in decision making is obvious.

The results in helping to make better decisions have yet to be determined, but it offers an interesting option.

We start making judgement decisions from the day we are born, taking in all the environmental, comfort and influence factors around us. We get comfortable with this style of decision making, and oftentimes overlook just what and who is influencing our decision making.
Every person has their own filters, biases and personal agendas – it’s human nature and for most, a subconscious participation in decision making. With less time for making decisions today, and even less time to make and correct mistakes, leaders need to use more reliable frameworks fo making complex decisions. Regardless of the tools one uses, not all decisions will have perfect outcomes. But leaders can certainly tip the odds to their favor using tools such as Business Intelligence Analytics.

Since leaders are judged largely by the quality of the decisions they make, it makes sense to use all the data and tools available today to drive that quality higher. Decision quality is measured by speed, considerations of all drivers and stakeholders, and the impact of the outcome on the strategic goals of the business. And, just as important today, decisions need to be transparent for the protection of both the business and the leader.

If you are still making decisions based on judgement, you are tempting fate in ways that have repercussions on not only the business, but also yourself and your family. The best decision any leader can make right now is to protect all stakeholders by implementing a sound analytical application from which reliable, relevant and real time information can be accessed and applied to problem solving and opportunity conversion. Logic driven decisions support evidence based management. Not only will your decisions be smarter – they will be auditable.

Most of us do not look at decision making as a distinct process, with very distinct pitfalls and very distinct remedies. In its simplest form, the decision process has four steps:

Key Takeaways

Frame – Solve the right problem, by framing the issue correctly. Most people solve the wrong problem – makes it difficult to find a good solution.  Frames are mental constructions that reduce the problem to its core essence. This often requires that you step away from this issue and determine whether what you are focusing on, is what you really need a decision on. Different people see a different reason. At this stage we must determine whether the frame is correct for the decision that needs to be made.

Investigate – Once you have a frame, then look at the quality of the intelligence and data. It then challenges those involved as to whether it confirms or challenges our beliefs.

Negotiate - Decisions often requires tradeoffs, so you need to understand the various parts of the solution, the cost of each part and the benefits gained from it.

Learn – how this decision can benefit you and how you can leverage the most from it.

Good decision making is about balancing the resources and effort on each of these four steps

In spite of thinking you have the ‘memory of an elephant’, the brain knows otherwise.

Long term memory resides in an area of the brain called the Hypocampus. Alcohol interferes with forming long term memory, as does being relaxed. At the opposite end of the scale, fear strengthens memory. This is why we remember events connected to strong emotions. This is because emotions use the same part of the brain as long term memory.

To remember something long term, the brain must make chemical pathways or connections between brain cells. And it helps when those brain cells co-exist in the same part of the brain. Eye witness accounts are typically very unreliable, despite the person truly believing they are representing an accurate account. For instance:

• Color is inaccurate
• The brain adds logically expected items
• Tunnel vision is common – don’t see beyond the zone of activity related to stress. This disturbs recall outside a few details

For these reasons, it is not difficult for a skilled person to change people memories. Lawyers use the minds infallibility all the time to confuse and trick witnesses – at times resulting in prosecution of the innocent and freedom of the guilty.

Juries are very convinced by eye witnesses. Studies have shown that 54% of jurors swing their decision between guilty and not guilty based on eye witness accounts that are ‘guided’ by the lawyer’s questions. It has also been found that 95% of convictions overturned by DNA were originally convicted based on eye witnesses accounts.

So before you start getting defensive about being the exception to the rule, and priding yourself on your excellent memory, just remember, data-driven evidence does not lie.

When fear enters the picture, in the absence of the truth, the individual makes up something that is so much worse. We seem to be genetically programmed to look at the negative side of things, a natural protection mechanism.

So what message should you give. That depends entirely on the customer group – and knowing about your customer to that level of detail requires business intelligence capability. For customers in lower economic levels – they will be looking at ways to spread payments or lower cost options. For those in the mid-level, with perhaps more job security and lower debt levels, they will be looking to cash in on the good deals and are more willing to get a good discount for cash payments now, rather than extended payment terms. For those at the top, they are more concerned with ensuring that support will be there when they want it – they don’t have time to read manuals and prefer to get on the phone and have someone walk them through installations or have a service agent do the installation for them.

You need to affirm to your current customers that your business is solid. Be honest. Tell them you are taking prudent actions to cut costs to ensure your debt levels remain within good business practice, and that to ensure your current products remain supported that you are working closely with suppliers to ensure that both product delivery and after sales service remain at the levels you know they value.

Customers just want to feel that you are on the ball – that you care that they may be feeling restless and want some form of assertion that all will be well. Contacting your customers and keeping them close to you will do more for maintaining sales volumes than almost any other strategy.

So you see, The Logical Organization and business intelligence is not all about raw data. It’s about having the right information you can rely on to create a transparent relationship with your suppliers and customers. Right brain emotion is still a valued partner of left-brain logic.

I mentioned to him that I had completed my book and proudly handed him one of my promotional postcards. He looked at it and a grin crossed his face as he realised that he had, at first glance, read the title as ‘Theological Organization’ instead of the books real title ‘The Logical Organization’.

In laser quick speed the question as to why I would possibly consider that I would have anything of merit to contribute in his area of expertise also crossed his mind. This is of course a totally valid conclusion, so we shared in the amusement of this however, I also recognized that my view of ‘logic’ would no doubt come under scrutiny. On this ground I feel secure, so I quickly clarified that my reference to ‘logic’ per se was purely in the context of making business decisions.

He accepted my response graciously but explained that there have been many ‘authorities’ on logic in the past that have been somewhat deluded in their interpretation of the subject.

We promised to explore this debate at a later date. It was only on my way home that I realised that he had just provided me a perfect example of one one of the elements I cover in my book. That each of us interpret reality in the context of our previous experiences and biases.

This is what no doubt led his first reading the title as ‘theological’ rather than ‘the logical’.  I rest my case!

According to the professor, “dominant logic can stifle openness and receptivity to new ideas, practices and business models”.

When an organizations decision making gets too biased towards the so-called wisdom of experts or the more aggressive communication style of particular individuals, creativity and innovation are stifled. A wall of implied ego surrounds the expert and the A types build their own, effectively preventing the ideas and opinions of others in the organization expressing their own thoughts.

A good BI program helps to change the way decisions are made. Logic becomes less Socratic and more fluid, with multiple options being proffered and explored. Expertise is often developed at a point of time, and unless it is continually adapted to the changing environment, it can become as outdated as products and fashions. Concepts that failed in the past, may well have been ill-timed or incorrectly packaged. Re-launching it now may be a great success.

The logical organization ensures the voice of the many is not curtailed by the ego of the few. In this way, innovation and creativity are fostered from multiple perspectives and the golden goose may just lay again!

1. Thinking – how people think and the various types of thinking used in business; those which are now redundant, and those we should be embracing for the future
2. Insight – how it transforms knowledge into wisdom
3. Intelligence – the various forms of intelligence and how we apply them
4. Logic – the core of business intelligence
5. Creativity and Innovation – how our brain applies old knowledge to create new ideas; and what limits our creativity
6. Knowledge Culture – how silos of knowledge prevent organizations from learning, innovating and advancing
7. Collaboration – why it is feared by some and favoured by others
8. Business Intelligence – it’s not quite as left brain as you might initially think
9. Organizational Change – Why most change management models fail in todays corporations. Key considerations in how to influence your culture towards a healthier, more appropriate future
10. Performance – the four key components to high performing organizations

Over the next few months, as I head into the launch of The Logical Organization I want to share with you my thoughts on business intelligence on these elements. So bookmark this site and subscribe to the RSS Feed.

I welcome you comments on my posts

The Logic Evangelist

Decision Making = Evaluating Options + Selecting a Solution

The decision making process is both individual and collaborative, requires information and timeliness.

Decision makers need to be able to get answers to specific questions, not just generic ones. When problems present in new ways, generic responses tend to offer solutions based on old contexts.

So with much discussion about decision making – packaged BI does not make a lot of sense. Business users need tools that can be manipulated to represent the context of the questions they are seeking to answer.

The first steps in the decision making process are the least understood. What brings problems to the head of the agenda, and how can it be presented in a way to facilitated its solution be understood by others. BI not arranged this way. It may reach a wide audience, but its use is tiered.

The way the problem is presented – controls the outcome solution. BI is not arranged this way.
Decisions that once took days – now need to be made in the speed of a transaction
In summary, every decision made in your business demands that all involved:

1. Understand the logic behind both the situation and any decision made
2. Identify all assumptions and check their validity with data
3. Consider the situation from multiple perspectives
4. Include the people!
5. Think both short and long term.